Good evening all it has been a while!!
I have taken a bit of a break since my last post but on the subject of Brexit nothing seems to have changed!! We are still stuck in as much deadlock as we were when I last broached the subject, and parliament is gridlocked!!
The problem I feel (as I have stated before many times) is the majority of parliament didn’t want out of the EU in the first place, and the Brexiteers are too few in number to pass anything!!
Since I last tapped out any wordage on the subject Theresa May has resigned, Jeremy Corbyn has moved slightly more towards advocating a second referendum while all the while worrying about what will happen to MP’s in mainly leave areas.
Jo Swinson is the new Lib Dem leader and the party seems to have gained some traction for its stance as a staunchly remain party.
The SNP continue to plot for the latest way to gain Scottish independence, while the Tories in Westminster unwittingly try to find new ways to help them achieve this (I point to the name of the party for any who disagree with my perspective).
The Brexit party predictably performed well in the European Elections and are still around with Nigel Farage being predictable.
Finally Boris Johnson achieved his lifelong ambition of becoming prime minister (I’m sure daddy is very proud)!!
I will quickly mention something about Theresa May who in the end did the decent thing and resigned.
First thing for me to say here is I did not envy Theresa May one bit for the job she took on after Cameron retreated to the shadows after calling the in/out EU referendum of 2016, loosing it and refusing to take responsibility for the aftermath.
However I also believe that her unwillingness to compromise any red lines in the negotiations of our exit led to a deal being struck that could never pass in parliament. Her inability to offer any role to other parties in the process only sought to compound the problems still being felt in parliament today.
Of course we also had the disaster of the snap election called in 2017 where May lost her majority in parliament and was forced to rely on another party to form a workable government going forward. This seriously under mined her authority when her premiership was in its infancy, and to me is one of the major reasons May was forced to leave Number 10.
That being said the already hinted at divisions in this country caused by EU membership that the referendum only highlighted further were a challenge a politician like May (who was not the best public speaker we have ever had) could not climb over.
It was an impossible challenge to unite a divided people and a divided parliament, and May to me is simply a scapegoat for the problems felt by all politicians at the moment.
I am not a fan of Boris!! This is an opinion I feel I must state now before I go any further. To me Boris is simply a person born into privilege who has been conditioned to take a privileged role in politics, and quite predictably joined the most privileged party in our political system.
An old Etonian who knows about as much about the struggles of everyday citizens as I do about quantum physics, or how to build a house!! I am not the biggest fan of people who are given everything and expect to live a champagne lifestyle (Jacob Rees – Mogg comes to mind as well for this, and what a shock he now has a privileged place in government).
That being said I will say one thing for Boris and the right wing takeover of the government, at the very least they have a defined position on Brexit. The first government in 3 years to have the courage of its conviction, and whether I agree with the position or not I at least appreciate that we could be heading to a conclusion to the first round of the mess we find ourselves in!!! After 3 years and all the negativity on all sides of the argument we at least have a government with a pretty obvious position whatever they would lead you believe.
I believe Johnson is trying to do two things in relation to Brexit: Firstly I believe he is attempting to strong arm concessions from the EU by showing how serious he and his government are to take the country out of the EU with no deal if they have two.
Secondly I believe he is attempting to position his party as the leave party in the event of a government collapse and the inevitable general election that will follow either scenario.
I do not believe even Boris believes he has the mandate to govern this country for the long term, and the way the majority of parliament is staunchly in the remain camp I see it as merely a matter of time before a general election happens either through Boris calling it soon after no deal, or a vote of no confidence being successful in the government.
Currently we have a game of chess going on in parliament between Brexiteers and those who voted for remain.
Corbyn has a meeting with other parties to discuss how to use legislation and the political process.
Boris in no uncertain terms confirms to all we will leave the EU no ifs no buts on 31st October this year.
Swinson calls for a temporary national unity government in order to extend the leave date (AGAIN REALLY AARRGGHH), and then have time to call a general election and possibly a SECOND referendum!!!
Boris ramps up no deal planning and gives Gove the task of making sure we will be ready no matter what.
Sturgeon wants another referendum (surprised I think not).
John McDonnell tells an audience at the Edinburgh fringe that he will send Corbyn in a taxi to the queen to take over as Prime Minister if Boris refuses to go after a vote of no confidence.
Boris seeks to suspend parliament for longer than normal to set a ‘new agenda’ (not in anyway to shorten the time parliament has to effect avoiding a no deal Brexit)???
Legal advice sort and much outrage expressed that the Tories would even think of doing this, and possibly a few people laughing out loud that this is being sold as a case of procedure.
Even speaker of the house Bercow who in my terms has been at times far from impartial in his handling of the Brexit process in the house expresses outrage at the prospect of this happening.
Actually I think my analogy is slightly wide of the mark here. This is a game of chicken and the country waits with baited breath to see who will blink first!!!
Now lets get something straight here whether we leave or whether we stay does anyone really think that this is going to suddenly unite the country? I certainly don’t!!
If we leave and more to the point if we crash out without a deal then slightly less than 17 million people will feel cheated, and no doubt there will be protests and plans to re enter Europe as soon as possible no matter the cost!! Outrage will fill ever facet of the newspapers and be all over social media. There will doubtless be crying in the streets and young people claiming their futures have been ruined by old unenlightened people who can’t see past their racist views on immigration and ‘foreigners’!!!
On the other hand if we get yet ANOTHER extension to the Brexit or we get a second referendum, or if article 50 is revoked then slightly more than 17 million people will feel cheated, no doubt there will be protests and plans to finally see the results of the original referendum honoured, and well you get the general idea that I’m trying to convey here. If we think that either scenario is going to suddenly unite the country then I think we will be sadly mistaken. Whoever wins a large amount of people will feel cheated whatever happens here, and the debates and analysis will drive us crazy for years and years to come. All I will say here is that all the referendum has done for many people within our country is make it a less happy place to live, neighbour and colleague have been set against each other with a strongly held set of views, and arguments about this have become more frequent. Cameron has stirred up one hell of a hornets nest and then ran away to safety with the stick he used to hit the nest with still in hand. I for one do not like the general nastiness that has been brought to the surface from all of this.
The sad truth as well that we may have to face is that Boris could well win a majority at any future election especially if the Brexit deadline is missed again.
Why you may ask? Well Jo Swinson can claim all she wants that there are more people in this country supporting remain than leave, but unless that support can be focused to overcome our voting system then Boris or leave supporters could have a working majority in parliament, and its 1983 all over again!!
For those not old enough to remember this election (and I am not although I did take politics at A – level) Labour and the Liberal/SDP alliance had very similar shares of the national vote, however because Labour could rely on traditional supporter basis in specific areas they achieved massively more seats. If the Tory support is more focused and the rest more spread it is not stupid to suggest the Tories could get a majority in parliament, and add to this a further supply agreement with the Democratic
Unionists of Northern Ireland and we could get a no deal Brexit regardless.
Another fact I found interesting is that local parties are threatening not to reselect MP’s we want to remain in Tory areas if an election is called and will vote for a Brexit candidate changing the demographics in parliament.
Either way we have 2 months to either avert no deal with a deal or something else, or a no deal. I for one will just be happy whatever happens for this process to end, but unfortunately I feel whichever way we turn the aftermath will be felt for generations to come!!
As always my opinions are my own and thank you for reading my ramblings!!